OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in…
As of 19 September 2026, "October 31, 2026" leads at 7% implied probability. The event has traded $0 in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $98 of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2028.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.