OpenAI resumes training on...?
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve according to the calendar d…
As of 16 October 2026, "Not resumed by October 20" leads at 83% implied probability (+0.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "October 15", from 7% to 3%. The event has traded $57.4K in total ($3.1K in the last 24h) with $10.1K of liquidity across 24 markets. Trading is due to close on 21 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
24 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.