OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursi…
As of 18 September 2026, "OpenAI" leads at 51% implied probability. The event has traded $0 in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $0 of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2028.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.