Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "con…
As of 16 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 4% implied probability (-0.2pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $107.3K in total ($718 in the last 24h) with $9.4K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.