Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?
In 2026, the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel by fuel producers, which has since been extended several times, most recently through October 31, 2026. On October 10, 2026, the government partially lifted the ban, permitting Russian fuel producers to export up to 500,…
As of 16 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 5% implied probability (-11.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 85% to 96%. The event has traded $1.2K in total ($100 in the last 24h) with $2.2K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.