Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either offici…
As of 28 October 2026, "December 31" leads at 17% implied probability. The biggest 24h move is "February 28, 2027", from 71% to 75%. The event has traded $9.9M in total ($133.8K in the last 24h) with $1.3M of liquidity across 18 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 July 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
18 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.