Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?
On November 11, 2026, following US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle to a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war, with the number of prisoners involved still being finalized. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place …
As of 12 November 2026, "December 31" leads at 85% implied probability. The event has traded $540 in total ($540 in the last 24h) with $18.7K of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.