Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait o…
As of 16 October 2026, "October 2" leads at 93% implied probability (-2.6pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $45.6K in total ($3.1K in the last 24h) with $13.3K of liquidity across 31 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
31 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.