Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, …
As of 17 September 2026, "September 17" leads at 50% implied probability. The event has traded $0 in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $458 of liquidity across 14 markets. Trading is due to close on 30 September 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
14 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.