FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval of intismeran autogene for any indication by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck a…
As of 16 October 2026, "December 31, 2027" leads at 67% implied probability. The biggest 24h move is "September 30, 2027", from 82% to 84%. The event has traded $180.6K in total ($2 in the last 24h) with $18.5K of liquidity across 3 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2028.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
3 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.