Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 1, 2026
Outcome: Arkansas, Idaho, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, North Carolina, New Mexico, Mississippi, Oregon, Nebraska. This is how the market settled on Polymarket.
Settled 4 Sept 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolve…
This market settled on 4 September 2026. Over its lifetime it traded $25.6K across 40 Polymarket markets.
Probability over time
Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
40 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.