Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolv…
As of 10 September 2026, "South Carolina" leads at 57% implied probability. The event has traded $40 in total ($40 in the last 24h) with $607 of liquidity across 40 markets. Trading is due to close on 17 September 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
40 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.