18+Data only · No predictions · Play responsiblyHow this site works
Sciencecloses in 6d

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 15, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolv…

As of 10 September 2026, "South Carolina" leads at 57% implied probability. The event has traded $40 in total ($40 in the last 24h) with $607 of liquidity across 40 markets. Trading is due to close on 17 September 2026.

24h volume
$40
Total volume
$40
Liquidity
$607
Markets
40
17 Sept 2026
WeatherRecurringDrought

Chart, demo trading & order book

MarketSouth Carolina
Yes57.0¢
24h Chg
Mkt Vol$40
live
Order bookYes
Market tradeslive · 6s
Practice before you trade

Test this market with $10,000 virtual funds

Free account: paper trade on the real order book, follow whale moves, stack airdrop points.

Start free

Already have an account? Sign in

Holders and activity

Loading holders…

Markets and probabilities

40 markets
How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 15, 2026 — Polymarket implied odds · Polytracker