UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that so…
As of 12 September 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 4% implied probability (-0.4pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $15.8K in total ($405 in the last 24h) with $23.9K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.