US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly…
As of 16 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 76% implied probability (-1.0pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $297.3K in total ($36.6K in the last 24h) with $400.6K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 4 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.