US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument…
As of 21 September 2026, "December 31" leads at 12% implied probability (+1.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "November 30", from 94% to 92%. The event has traded $17.9M in total ($35.3K in the last 24h) with $447.6K of liquidity across 9 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
9 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.