US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Th…
As of 8 November 2026, "November 8" leads at 50% implied probability. The event has traded $0 in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $205 of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.