Politicscloses in 1mo

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-da…

24h volume

$1.1M

Total volume

$5.8M

Liquidity

$306.7K

Markets

31 Aug 2026

IranceasefirePeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

Probability over time

Loading…

Holders and activity

Loading holders…

Markets and probabilities

5 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.