Sciencecloses in 5mo

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (G…

24h volume

Total volume

$596

Liquidity

$618

Markets

31 Dec 2026

WeatherScienceEruptMt. VesuviusvolcanoItaly

Probability over time

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Holders and activity

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Markets and probabilities

1 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.