What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the …
As of 12 September 2026, "≥ 4.5%" leads at 9% implied probability (+3.6pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "4.0%", from 42% to 44%. The event has traded $6.8M in total ($3.8K in the last 24h) with $234.6K of liquidity across 15 markets. Trading is due to close on 9 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
15 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.