What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.…
As of 16 October 2026, "Over 2.5" leads at 71% implied probability (-8.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "2.25–2.5", from 87% to 82%. The event has traded $97.9K in total ($3.3K in the last 24h) with $5.8K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 April 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.