When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the …
As of 22 October 2026, "October 1 - 31, 2026" leads at 64% implied probability (+1.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No return before November 1, 2026", from 68% to 66%. The event has traded $146.5K in total ($724 in the last 24h) with $3.9K of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.