Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any othe…
As of 12 September 2026, "5" leads at 0% implied probability. The biggest 24h move is "1", from 76% to 74%. The event has traded $3.4M in total ($898 in the last 24h) with $241.0K of liquidity across 6 markets. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.