polytracker
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18+Data only · No predictions · Play responsiblyHow this site works
Sciencecloses in 22d

Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). …

24h volume
$48
Total volume
$48
Liquidity
$360
Markets
6
3 Sept 2026
JapanMexicoWeatherclimateIndonesiaEarthquakesPhilippinesUnited States

Probability over time

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Markets and probabilities

6 markets
How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.