Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, that market reso…
As of 16 October 2026, "Indonesia" leads at 52% implied probability (-4.0pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $5.9K in total ($461 in the last 24h) with $856 of liquidity across 7 markets. Trading is due to close on 4 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
7 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.