Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advis…
As of 16 October 2026, "Hawaii" leads at 10% implied probability. The biggest 24h move is "Alabama", from 5% to 9%. The event has traded $41.3K in total ($35 in the last 24h) with $17.8K of liquidity across 19 markets. Trading is due to close on 8 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
19 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.