Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). Th…
As of 19 September 2026, "No Meeting by September 30" leads at 88% implied probability (-1.3pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "USA", from 4% to 10%. The event has traded $6.0M in total ($91.0K in the last 24h) with $777.1K of liquidity across 19 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
19 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.