Politicscloses in 4mo

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long…

24h volume

Total volume

$143.1K

Liquidity

$483

Markets

1 Jan 2027

MexicoMexico Cartel WarjaliscoGeopoliticsEl MenchomenchoCJNGJalisco New Generation Cartelsinaloa Cartel

Probability over time

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Markets and probabilities

8 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.