Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provid…
As of 12 September 2026, "Other" leads at 9% implied probability (-0.1pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Labour + Green + Maori", from 87% to 82%. The event has traded $54.9K in total ($31 in the last 24h) with $194.5K of liquidity across 18 markets. Trading is due to close on 7 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
18 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.