Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of ht…
As of 12 September 2026, "Anthropic" leads at 69% implied probability (+5.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "OpenAI", from 21% to 15%. The event has traded $1.2M in total ($29.3K in the last 24h) with $899.9K of liquidity across 26 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
26 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.