Which company has the best AI model end of September?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at…
As of 12 September 2026, "Anthropic" leads at 96% implied probability (+7.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "OpenAI", from 91% to 99%. The event has traded $3.2M in total ($243.5K in the last 24h) with $1.4M of liquidity across 32 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
32 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.