Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unc…
As of 12 September 2026, "None in 2026" leads at 82% implied probability (-0.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "OpenAI", from 97% to 95%. The event has traded $124.5K in total ($314 in the last 24h) with $21.7K of liquidity across 32 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
32 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.