Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship tra…
As of 16 October 2026, "US" leads at 28% implied probability. The event has traded $51.3K in total ($85 in the last 24h) with $58.8K of liquidity across 8 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
8 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.