Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in 2027?
This market will resolve according to the calendar month containing the first date from January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2027 for which the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. If no such date occurs, this market will resolve to “No Return to Nor…
As of 14 November 2026, "January 2027" leads at 46% implied probability. The event has traded $0 in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $109 of liquidity across 13 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2028.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
13 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.