Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-perso…
As of 16 October 2026, "Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf" leads at 22% implied probability (+0.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Ishaq Dar", from 22% to 12%. The event has traded $1.5M in total ($17.8K in the last 24h) with $395.8K of liquidity across 27 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
27 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.