Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is a…
As of 16 October 2026, "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" leads at 1% implied probability (-2.2pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No Hormuz Agreement", from 93% to 96%. The event has traded $1.8M in total ($224.3K in the last 24h) with $828.9K of liquidity across 3 markets. Trading is due to close on 4 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
3 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.