Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
As of 16 October 2026, "Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate" leads at 4% implied probability (-0.5pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $66.5K in total ($16.8K in the last 24h) with $1.2M of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 4 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.