Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of …
As of 16 October 2026, "Oil < $85; D Senate" leads at 12% implied probability (-0.9pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $279.0K in total ($44.6K in the last 24h) with $1.2M of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 4 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.