Politicscloses in 5mo

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. …

24h volume

Total volume

$136.3K

Liquidity

$11.9K

Markets

31 Dec 2026

PoliticsGeopoliticsWorldTrumpUkraineIsraelForeign Policy

Probability over time

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Holders and activity

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Markets and probabilities

1 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.