Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal…
As of 12 September 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 13% implied probability. The event has traded $75.5K in total ($196 in the last 24h) with $14.1K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.