Politicscloses in 17mo

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited…

24h volume

$25.3K

Total volume

$2.2M

Liquidity

$223.9K

Markets

31 Dec 2027

ChinaPoliticsWorldGeopolitics

Probability over time

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Markets and probabilities

1 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.