Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays t…
As of 16 October 2026, "5-7" leads at 37% implied probability (-3.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "<5", from 7% to 13%. The event has traded $10.1K in total ($402 in the last 24h) with $1.4K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.