Politicscloses in 5mo

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-Gen…

24h volume

Total volume

$3.0M

Liquidity

$10.6K

Markets

31 Dec 2026

LebanonPoliticsIsraelSyriaGeopoliticsForeign Policy

Probability over time

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Holders and activity

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Markets and probabilities

3 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.