Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike…
As of 26 October 2026, "October 31" leads at 19% implied probability (-4.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "November 30", from 30% to 55%. The event has traded $22.8K in total ($727 in the last 24h) with $22.7K of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 30 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.