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Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces ent…

As of 20 September 2026, "December 31" leads at 9% implied probability. The event has traded $758.7K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $15.2K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.

24h volume
$0
Total volume
$758.7K
Liquidity
$15.2K
Markets
5
1 Jan 2027
IsraelWorldMiddle EastPoliticsGeopoliticsGaza

Chart, demo trading & order book

MarketDecember 31
Yes8.5¢
24h Chg
Mkt Vol$109.0K
live
Order bookYes
Market tradeslive · 6s
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Markets and probabilities

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How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? — Polymarket implied odds · Polytracker