Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "…
As of 12 September 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 99% implied probability (+4.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 5% to 1%. The event has traded $14.1K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $8.5K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 3 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.