Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://…
As of 12 September 2026, "September 30" leads at 19% implied probability (-3.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "December 31", from 73% to 71%. The event has traded $94.8K in total ($1.1K in the last 24h) with $36.0K of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.