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Politicscloses in 3mo

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis…

As of 12 September 2026, "September 30" leads at 5% implied probability. The biggest 24h move is "December 31", from 65% to 69%. The event has traded $227.5K in total ($8.5K in the last 24h) with $43.3K of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.

24h volume
$8.5K
Total volume
$227.5K
Liquidity
$43.3K
Markets
2
1 Jan 2027
GeopoliticsUkraine Map

Chart, demo trading & order book

MarketSeptember 30
Yes5.1¢
24h Chg+0.0pp
Mkt Vol$114.9K
live
Order bookYes
Market tradeslive · 6s
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Holders and activity

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Markets and probabilities

2 markets
How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.