Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a be…
As of 16 October 2026, "December 31" leads at 34% implied probability (-3.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "March 31, 2027", from 63% to 60%. The event has traded $68.3K in total ($193 in the last 24h) with $54.6K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.