Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike …
As of 16 October 2026, "October 16" leads at 94% implied probability (+3.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "October 17", from 86% to 93%. The event has traded $496.2K in total ($20.9K in the last 24h) with $202.8K of liquidity across 31 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
31 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.