Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include c…
As of 16 October 2026, "40+" leads at 2% implied probability (-39.0pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $1.0K in total ($776 in the last 24h) with $22.5K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.